INTERNATIONAL Y2K READINESS

Larry D. Rosen, Ph.D. and Michelle M. Weil, Ph.D.

On Wednesday, March 3, 1999 a special Senate panel warned that "the lag in Year 2000 preparations around the globe poses a serious threat." Quoting results of an October 1998 Gartner Group study, the report predicted the following chance of at least one major computer crash in the indicated countries:

ESTIMATED CHANCE OF AT LEAST ONE MAJOR COMPUTER CRASH IN THE YEAR 2000

66% Chance

Afghanistan, Bahrain, Banglaadesh, Cambodia, Chad, China, Costa Rica, Ecuador, Egypt, El Salvador, Ethiopia, Fiji, Indonesia, Kenya, Laos, Lithuania, Morocco, Mozambique, Nepal, Nigeria, Pakistan, Phillippines, Romainia, Russia, Somalia, Sudan, Thailand, Uruguay, Vietnam, Zaire, Zimbabwe

50% Chance

Argentina, Armenia, Austria, Bulgaria, Columbia, Czech Republic, Germany, Guatemala, India, Japan, Jordan, Kuwait, Malaysia, North Korea, Poland, Puerto Rico, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Sri Lanka, Turkey, U.A.E., Venezuela, Yugoslavia

33% Chance

Brazil, Chile, Finland, France, Hungary, Italy, Mexico, New Zealand, Norway, Peru, Portugal, Singapore, South Korea, Spain, Taiwan

15% Chance

Australia, Belgium, Bermuda, Canada, Denmark, Holland, Ireland, Israael, Switzerland, Sweden, U.K. and the United States

Between 1992 and 1994, we collected data from 3,392 first year university students in 23 countries. Based on assessment instruments we were successful at placing each country on a two-dimensional map indicating their computer/technology experience (bottom dimension) and the amount of stress they were feeling as a result of technology in their lives (side dimension). A detailed summary of the published article can be found by clicking here.

The results of our study can be see in the picture below with the countries color coded to reflect the Gartner Group's classification as shown by the colors in the keys both above and below the picture. In the graph of our results below, countries farther to the right had more technological experience, while those farther to the left had less. Countries toward the top had more technological stress, while those toward the bottom had less.

   
T

E

C

H

N

O

S

T

R

E

S

S
 

 

 

Indonesia

                 

 

       

India

           

 

Poland

            Japan      
                     
          Czech Republic No. Ireland        

 

Saudi Arabia

  Thailand       Mexico     Australia
  Greece

Kenya

 

 

Spain            
Egypt

Italy

  Germany            

USA

        Belgium Argentina       Singapore    

 

        Croatia            

 

     

Hungary

    Israel      

 

                     

 

 

           

 

   
 

 

 

COMPUTER/TECHNOLOGY EXPERIENCE

 


RISK OF MISSION CRITICAL YEAR 2000 FAILURES
15% of companies in these countries will have at least one mission critical failure
33% of companies in these countries will have at least one mission critical failure
50% of companies in these countries will have at least one mission critical failure
66% of companies in these countries will have at least one mission critical failure

Data reported from: Special report by Garnter Group to U.S. Senate Committe on the Year 2000 Technology Problem

Several points are clear when comparing the data we collected 5 to 7 years ago to the conclusions by the Gartner Group. First, significant major Year 2000 problems are expected from countries who were high in technological experience and low-to-moderate in technological fears in our study. Countries where the Gartner Group estimated the most severe problems (in red and orange) are among those who demonstrated less technological experience and moderate-to-high TechnoStress in our study.


From the figure above, it is also clear that, in general, the more technological experience and the lower technological discomfort, the lower the Gartner Group's probability of major computer crashes (shown by countries highlighted in blue and green).


Overall, our earlier results predicted and corroborated the Gartner Group study. Indeed there are groups of countries who should escape Y2K with few major problems and other countries which may see their computer networks become incapacitated.

For further information on our most recent Y2K study, click here.

For further information on our 3-year study showing that business people are becoming more hesitant and resistant toward technology, click here.

Return to TechnoStress Home Page for more information about the stress that technology brings to our lives and how to become the "driver not the driven."

More information on related topics can be found at either Dr. Weil's or Dr. Rosen's web sites.

E-mail Dr. Weil or Dr. Rosen.